Meredith Whitney
- 2010 0824 - CSPAN - Q&A with Meredith Whitney
- Monolines - MBIA, AMBAC
- Oppenheimer
- Barclays Litigation
- 13. In a January 29, 2008 Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. research report, which was circulated internally among traders at Barclays, analyst Meredith Whitney wrote:
- Among the myriad of negatives that surround financial stocks today, we see no issue more critical than the fate of the monoline insurers.
- The fate of the monoline insurers is of paramount importance to financial stocks, as further downgrades of major monoline insurers by the rating agencies could put another $100 billion in assets held by banks in jeopardy of further writedowns.9
- 9 Exhibit 358, BARC- ADS-00263822-855 at 823
- Among the myriad of negatives that surround financial stocks today, we see no issue more critical than the fate of the monoline insurers.
barclaysbankplcsecuritieslitigation.com/media/934797/sharan_nirmul_exhibits_211-234.pdf
- 2008 0222 - NYT - Report on Potential Ambac Bailout Reverses Stock Slide - [link]
- Update: The New York Times reported Friday afternoon that Ambac will split itself into two parts and raise $3 billion.
- The plan, drafted by a consortium of eight banks including Citigroup and UBS, still needs approval by the credit ratings agencies but could be formally unveiled as soon as Monday.
- But that seemed to reverse sharply late that afternoon after CNBC’s Charles Gasparino reported that a deal to save the triple-A rating of Ambac Financial, the second-largest bond insurer, was near.
- That move, which has also been suggested in different forms by the New York insurance superintendent, Eric R. Dinallo, Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren E. Buffett and a short seller, William Ackman, would shield municipalities against defaults in the structured finance business.
- It would also help preserve the credit ratings of the municipal business, keeping the cost of borrowing lower for local governments and the like.
- Analysts like Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer Research have estimated that banks could suffer as much as $75 billion in additional charges if bond insurers are downgraded.
- According to CNBC, New York’s insurance department believes that both Ambac and its larger rival, MBIA, have enough assets to cover losses stemming from their insurance of CDOs.
- But the bigger question is whether those companies will suffer downgrades — and whether they can attract new business, as many municipalities can by law hold only triple-A-rated securities.
- 2011 0207 - NYT - A Seer on Banks Raises a Furor on Bonds, By Nelson D. Schwartz - [link]
- 263. On January 29, 2008, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney published an "Industry Update" report on "US Banks" which stated that "the fate of the monoline insurers is of paramount importance" and estimated that downgrades to monoline insurers could cause large banks to write down $40 - $70 billion worth of assets currently insured by monolines: We have dramatically changed our thought process with respect to the monolines and their impact on banks and the larger financial market. While we had previously believed the monoline insurers MBI and ABK were too important to fail due to the threat of systemic risk and thus would likely be bailed out, we no longer think systemic risk is even realistic or a bailout of the monolines even viable. Accordingly, herein we assess what we believe is the highly concentrated collateral damage to the banks under our coverage. We estimate that additional write -downs could be as large as $70 billion, but would more likely be roughly $40 billion throughout 2008.